As Valentines Day draws near in the bitter cold weeks of winter, love is in the air for baseball fans. The long and dismal off-season will finally come to an end when the Kennesaw State Owls take on St. John’s University on February 14th, and players and fans alike are eager to rekindle their love with America’s great past-time.
But what can we expect from the Owls in 2020? Will the offense continue to be a juggernaut in the Atlantic Sun Conference? Will the team finish above .500? Was last year’s exclusion from the ASUN tournament just a fluke?
To try and understand where the Owls may be headed in the upcoming campaign I’ve taken a deep dive through the team’s last decade of statistics. The data paints the picture of a team poised to score runs, but that is not likely not determine the success of their season. The secret ingredient will be the pitching staff.
Offense!
One thing the Owls have counted on through the years is a potent offense. The team OPS has been consistently solid and only dropped below .700 once over the 10-year stretch, though that certainly was not their worst overall season of the decade (more on that later). These marks have ranked near the top of the ASUN, with 2019’s offense being the best in-conference.
And there is little reason to think that this won’t continue in 2020. While the team will surely miss outfielder Jake Franklin, their second-best hitter by OPS in 2019 who graduated last year, the lineup still looks formidable. The Owls other top four bats will be returning, all with another year of experience under their belts. And the core coaching staff of Mike Sansing and Trey Fowler that has cultivated the team’s strong offensive presence through the decade is ready to once again swing for the fences in 2020.
Pitching?
Pitching is where the Owls have struggled in Division I play. The last four seasons have all seen a staff ERA of over 4.50, a number indicative of a team that has had a difficult time finding its pitching stride. Last season there were only five pitchers who threw more than 10 innings and kept their ERA below four, and only three of those five are with the team in 2020.
This puts a lot of pressure on a young pitching staff that will include eight freshman. A successful season will require a combination of solid development from returning pitchers and the flourishing of the new talent, a difficult task that if achieved could spell a return to form on the mound.
What It All Means
Fortunately for us fans, this data does not exist in a vacuum. To look into the crystal ball for the upcoming season, we can compare the team’s offensive and pitching numbers through the years to the overall team record for clues about what could play out in 2020. Using this method, two useful trends (or lack thereof) become evident.
Something that became obvious through analysis was that a good offense was not able to predict a winning season for the Owls in the 2010s. This is slightly disheartening, because it would seem that in 2020 the offense will likely be the Owls strongest asset.
While it is of course important for a team to score runs (duh), it is clearly not the deciding factor that will make or break the Owls. So then what is? You’ve likely already guessed it.
Pitching! The data shows without a doubt that the key to a good season for the Owls lies in their ability to command the mound. It is no coincidence that the best year in school history came in 2014 when the team ERA sat at a fantastic 3.47. That season saw the Owls play in the NCAA Division 1 Tournament for the first and only time, advancing all the way to a coveted Super Regional. Four pitchers produced elite sub-three ERA’s and paved the way for the school’s historic season.
In light of what we know about Owls pitching struggles last year, this may seem concerning for fans who are hoping for an exciting and victorious season. But those fans should take solace in the fact that the Owls have hired a new pitching coach to guide the staff in 2020. Travis McClanahan comes with an impressive resume in collegiate baseball spanning over 18 seasons, and his guidance of the young Owl arms could lead to a pitching renaissance that could in-turn produce a fruitful year for Kennesaw State.
2020 promises to be a fun year for the Owls one way or another. There is little doubt that the offense will provide a bang all season long, something spectators at Stillwell Stadium will surely appreciate. But if the Owls want to make waves in the collegiate baseball world this year, they will need to buck a downward pitching trend while maintaining the elite bats they’ve come to count on. If they can manage this advantageous balance, 2020 could be a year to remember.
Kennesaw State Baseball 